2015年07月08日11：10 來(lai)源(yuan)：金融(rong)時(shi)報

    “在(zai)高速發(fa)展的(de)(de)同(tong)時，我國保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)一些暗(an)藏的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)也(ye)在(zai)悄然發(fa)生變化，因此有效(xiao)防(fang)范和化解風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，依然是保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展以及(ji)行業(ye)(ye)監管的(de)(de)重中(zhong)之(zhi)重。”日前(qian)，作為保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估專家委員(yuan)會主(zhu)任(ren)委員(yuan)魏迎(ying)寧在(zai)中(zhong)國保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障基金有限公(gong)司舉辦的(de)(de)《中(zhong)國保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估報告2015》發(fa)布會上如是說。

    提示保險業八方面(mian)風險

    作(zuo)為現代經濟的(de)重(zhong)要產業(ye)(ye)，保險(xian)業(ye)(ye)兼具資本密(mi)集型、技術(shu)密(mi)集型、勞動密(mi)集型的(de)產業(ye)(ye)特(te)征。近年來(lai)(lai)，隨著(zhu)服務(wu)領域不斷拓寬，我國(guo)保險(xian)業(ye)(ye)承擔的(de)風(feng)險(xian)責(ze)任也(ye)越(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)重(zhong)，這為保險(xian)業(ye)(ye)自身風(feng)險(xian)管理帶來(lai)(lai)了前所未有的(de)挑戰。

    “保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基金(jin)是(shi)依據《保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)法》設立的(de)(de)(de)旨在維護廣大(da)投保(bao)(bao)(bao)人利(li)益的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)救助基金(jin)，作為保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基金(jin)籌集(ji)、管(guan)理和(he)使(shi)用主體，保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基金(jin)公司肩負著監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)職責。”在魏(wei)迎寧看來，通過保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基金(jin)對行(xing)(xing)業(ye)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)和(he)分析，不僅可以(yi)發現保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公司經營(ying)管(guan)理中出現的(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)危及保(bao)(bao)(bao)單持有人和(he)保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)重大(da)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，并且能(neng)夠從(cong)第三方(fang)視角監(jian)(jian)測(ce)(ce)和(he)評(ping)估行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)，既有利(li)于提高行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估的(de)(de)(de)客(ke)觀性(xing)和(he)專業(ye)性(xing)，也有利(li)于我國保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理和(he)研究，與世界先進(jin)國家和(he)地區(qu)接(jie)軌。

    中國(guo)保險(xian)(xian)保障基(ji)金有(you)限責任公(gong)司在(zai)這份報告中稱，當(dang)前我國(guo)保險(xian)(xian)業主要(yao)面(mian)臨(lin)八個方(fang)面(mian)的風險(xian)(xian)：一是車險(xian)(xian)經營面(mian)臨(lin)較(jiao)大挑(tiao)戰(zhan)，盈(ying)利(li)水平經受(shou)考驗；二是財(cai)產險(xian)(xian)中非車險(xian)(xian)險(xian)(xian)種分化明顯；三是人身險(xian)(xian)個人代理(li)(li)投入成本上升，銀(yin)保期繳增長乏力(li)(li)；四(si)是滿期給付與(yu)退(tui)保突出，現金流管理(li)(li)面(mian)臨(lin)較(jiao)大挑(tiao)戰(zhan)；五是部(bu)分保險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司存在(zai)較(jiao)大經營壓力(li)(li)；六是保險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司資產負債(zhai)匹配難度增加；七是渠道放(fang)開對(dui)公(gong)司資金運用能(neng)力(li)(li)形成挑(tiao)戰(zhan)；八是權益類資產比重上升面(mian)臨(lin)市場風險(xian)(xian)。

    組(zu)建風險評估“智囊(nang)團(tuan)”

    近(jin)年(nian)來，為了更好地(di)識(shi)別(bie)和預警(jing)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)障基金公司(si)不斷強化對保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監測(ce)和評(ping)估(gu)，建立了涵蓋(gai)財(cai)產險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、人(ren)身(shen)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)以及保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)金運(yun)用風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監測(ce)的報告制度。自(zi)2013年(nian)起，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)障基金公司(si)還建立了風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)專(zhuan)家(jia)委員會，并設(she)產險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、資(zi)金運(yun)用三個子委員會，聘請74位來自(zi)業(ye)(ye)界和學界的專(zhuan)家(jia)，共同探討行(xing)業(ye)(ye)關(guan)心的熱點焦(jiao)點，并針(zhen)對一些值得關(guan)注的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)問題(ti)進行(xing)研究(jiu)分析(xi)。

    “除對保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)存在的風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)，特(te)別是(shi)對行業(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發展(zhan)趨勢和特(te)點進行系統分析外，這份報(bao)告(gao)還精選了專家(jia)委員(yuan)會的11位委員(yuan)的研究(jiu)成果，內容涵蓋了償二代、費率市場化、資產負債(zhai)匹配、互聯網保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、農(nong)業(ye)(ye)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、巨災(zai)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等多(duo)個風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)關注點，并提(ti)出了相應的風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理對策。”據(ju)中國保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基(ji)金(jin)有(you)限責(ze)任公司總裁(cai)任建國介(jie)紹，今年是(shi)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基(ji)金(jin)首次發布《中國保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評(ping)(ping)估(gu)(gu)報(bao)告(gao)》，該報(bao)告(gao)目前(qian)僅(jin)供(gong)監(jian)管(guan)機關和有(you)關保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)機構(gou)內部參(can)考，今后還將逐步(bu)擴大報(bao)告(gao)的發布范圍，進而推動保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監(jian)測(ce)與風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)防范水(shui)平(ping)進一步(bu)提(ti)高，讓(rang)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)在更加公正、透明的競(jing)爭(zheng)環境下健康發展(zhan)。

    任(ren)建國同(tong)時透露，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)障基(ji)金公司將(jiang)進一(yi)步做實風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監測(ce)平(ping)臺，建立有公信(xin)力、科學客(ke)觀、具有保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)障基(ji)金公司特(te)色的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)監測(ce)和(he)預警(jing)指標體(ti)系，加(jia)強對先進適用的(de)監測(ce)技術和(he)手段的(de)利用，進一(yi)步細化(hua)(hua)、標準化(hua)(hua)行(xing)業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估(gu)工(gong)(gong)作，為下(xia)一(yi)步保(bao)障基(ji)金實施風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)費率創造條(tiao)件，為風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)處(chu)置工(gong)(gong)作夯實基(ji)礎。

  ;  探(tan)索編(bian)制“投保人信心(xin)指數”

    談(tan)及保險(xian)(xian)業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)監測(ce)，一位(wei)參(can)與報(bao)告編寫的專(zhuan)家(jia)告訴(su)記者，一般而言(yan)，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)與不確定性(xing)有關，實為出現不良后果的可能(neng)性(xing)，構成(cheng)要素包括風(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素、風(feng)險(xian)(xian)事故和(he)損失。保險(xian)(xian)保障基(ji)金公(gong)司開(kai)展風(feng)險(xian)(xian)監測(ce)，旨在(zai)成(cheng)為行業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的識別器和(he)預警器，在(zai)防范和(he)化(hua)解風(feng)險(xian)(xian)中占據(ju)主動地(di)位(wei)。因此，保險(xian)(xian)保障基(ji)金公(gong)司需要科學(xue)分析行業發展內外部(bu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)因素的顯著變(bian)(bian)化(hua)，對(dui)行業從風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的源頭到發展趨勢乃至風(feng)險(xian)(xian)警情進(jin)行監測(ce)，持續跟(gen)蹤風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的變(bian)(bian)化(hua)狀(zhuang)況，同時不斷提高監測(ce)工作的科學(xue)性(xing)、針對(dui)性(xing)和(he)預見性(xing)。

    “具體而言，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)障基(ji)金公司將探索編(bian)制并發布行業景氣指數(shu)(shu)(shu)、投保(bao)人(ren)信(xin)心指數(shu)(shu)(shu)，同時(shi)計劃適時(shi)開展保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)狀況(kuang)評估和(he)等級評定(ding)。此外(wai)，在做好非現場(chang)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)監(jian)(jian)測分析的(de)基(ji)礎上，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)障基(ji)金公司將嘗試在監(jian)(jian)管機構支(zhi)持下開展有(you)針對性的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)調(diao)查，及時(shi)預(yu)警可(ke)能存在的(de)行業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。目(mu)前，公司正在積極籌劃建立區域性的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)監(jian)(jian)測點(dian)，使風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)監(jian)(jian)測工作更(geng)加接近市(shi)場(chang)，通(tong)過持續監(jian)(jian)測、評估和(he)預(yu)警保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，為風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)處置提(ti)供(gong)支(zhi)持，促(cu)進全行業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理水(shui)平的(de)提(ti)高。”任建國如(ru)是說。