發布日期：2020-09-28
2020年(nian)(nian)9月，中國(guo)(guo)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)保障基金(jin)有(you)限責任公司在北京發布《中國(guo)(guo)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)評估報(bao)告(gao)2020》（以下(xia)(xia)簡稱“報(bao)告(gao)”）。報(bao)告(gao)指(zhi)出(chu)，2019年(nian)(nian)是防范(fan)化(hua)解重(zhong)大風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)攻堅戰(zhan)承上啟下(xia)(xia)之年(nian)(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)金(jin)融風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)由快速積(ji)(ji)累逐漸轉向(xiang)高位緩釋，市(shi)場預期發生(sheng)積(ji)(ji)極變(bian)化(hua)，監(jian)管制度進一(yi)步完善，保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)總體收(shou)斂(lian)，守住了不發生(sheng)系統性、區(qu)域性風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)底線。與此同(tong)時(shi)，在國(guo)(guo)內(nei)外風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)挑(tiao)戰(zhan)明(ming)顯增(zeng)多(duo)的(de)(de)復雜局(ju)面(mian)(mian)下(xia)(xia)，一(yi)些長期積(ji)(ji)累的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)隱患有(you)所暴露(lu)，一(yi)些新(xin)型風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)浮出(chu)水面(mian)(mian)，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)防范(fan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)任務依舊艱巨(ju)。報(bao)告(gao)分(fen)別從保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、市(shi)場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、信用風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、操作(zuo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、戰(zhan)略風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、公司治理風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、新(xin)興風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)等七個值得重(zhong)點(dian)關注(zhu)的(de)(de)方面(mian)(mian)，對2019年(nian)(nian)乃至當前保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進行(xing)(xing)深入剖析。
; 自2015年開始(shi)，保(bao)險(xian)保(bao)障基金公司(si)連續六年編寫并(bing)發布(bu)保(bao)險(xian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)年度風險(xian)評估報告(gao)。行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風險(xian)評估報告(gao)通過細致梳理(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)現狀和(he)風險(xian)問題，為監管(guan)部門、保(bao)險(xian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)和(he)相關機(ji)構提供有(you)價值的參(can)考借鑒(jian)信息，并(bing)希(xi)望以此促進行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)風險(xian)管(guan)理(li)水(shui)平的提升。
一、報告框架與特點
本次(ci)編撰的(de)(de)行(xing)業(ye)風(feng)險評估報告分(fen)為(wei)經濟金融環境(jing)(jing)、行(xing)業(ye)運行(xing)情況、行(xing)業(ye)風(feng)險評估和專家觀(guan)測視角四篇。在(zai)回顧2019年(nian)度保險業(ye)內外部(bu)環境(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)基礎上，對行(xing)業(ye)運行(xing)形(xing)勢進行(xing)了較為(wei)全面的(de)(de)闡述，并著重(zhong)對當前行(xing)業(ye)經營發展中存(cun)在(zai)的(de)(de)風(feng)險問題展開剖析。
本次行(xing)業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)評估報(bao)告(gao)有(you)三方(fang)面特點(dian)：一是發揮行(xing)業(ye)資源優(you)勢，增強報(bao)告(gao)專業(ye)性(xing)。依托行(xing)業(ye)專家(jia)，充分深入調查研究，以定性(xing)和定量(liang)相結合的(de)方(fang)式監(jian)測行(xing)業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)變化(hua)。二(er)是系統監(jian)測行(xing)業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)演變。報(bao)告(gao)以償(chang)二(er)代下(xia)的(de)風險(xian)(xian)分類(lei)為(wei)依據，全(quan)局性(xing)、系統性(xing)分析(xi)重點(dian)領域和關鍵環節的(de)主(zhu)要風險(xian)(xian)點(dian)。三是追蹤(zong)行(xing)業(ye)發展前沿。在持續(xu)關注傳統風險(xian)(xian)問(wen)題的(de)基礎上，重視(shi)新興風險(xian)(xian)暴露問(wen)題。
二、報告觀點
（一）運行情況
2019年(nian)，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)堅持(chi)回歸本源(yuan)，業(ye)(ye)務(wu)規模增(zeng)速回升(sheng)，實(shi)現原(yuan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收入4.26萬(wan)億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長12.17%；保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)資產(chan)(chan)規模平穩增(zeng)長，資產(chan)(chan)配(pei)置結構基本穩定，年(nian)末總資產(chan)(chan)20.56萬(wan)億(yi)元，較(jiao)年(nian)初(chu)增(zeng)長12.18%；凈(jing)資產(chan)(chan)2.48萬(wan)億(yi)元，較(jiao)年(nian)初(chu)增(zeng)長23.09%；行業(ye)(ye)償(chang)付能力(li)總體(ti)(ti)充足，2019年(nian)末，納入銀保(bao)(bao)監會(hui)償(chang)付能力(li)監管委(wei)員(yuan)會(hui)工(gong)作會(hui)議評估范(fan)圍的保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公司平均綜(zong)合償(chang)付能力(li)為247.7%。保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)障功能不(bu)斷增(zeng)強，為全社(she)(she)會(hui)提供(gong)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)金(jin)額約6,470.04萬(wan)億(yi)元，賠款和(he)給付支出12,894億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長4.85%；助力(li)經濟社(she)(she)會(hui)發(fa)展大局，持(chi)續(xu)(xu)加大對經濟社(she)(she)會(hui)發(fa)展重點領域和(he)薄(bo)弱環節(jie)的支持(chi)力(li)度。市場主體(ti)(ti)穩步增(zeng)長，消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者權益(yi)保(bao)(bao)護力(li)度持(chi)續(xu)(xu)加強。2019年(nian)中國(guo)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者信(xin)(xin)心指數為72.1，顯示保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)者信(xin)(xin)心持(chi)續(xu)(xu)保(bao)(bao)持(chi)樂(le)觀態度。
（二）風險評估
當前階段，我國金融風(feng)險(xian)(xian)由快(kuai)速(su)(su)積(ji)累逐漸轉(zhuan)向高位緩釋，市場(chang)預期發生積(ji)極(ji)變(bian)化，監管制(zhi)度進一(yi)步(bu)完善，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)行(xing)業(ye)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)總體(ti)收(shou)斂，守住了(le)不發生系統性、區(qu)域性風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)底線(xian)。但受(shou)到(dao)地緣政治緊張局勢(shi)抬(tai)頭、部分國家間經(jing)(jing)貿摩擦(ca)日(ri)益深化等因(yin)素影響，發達經(jing)(jing)濟體(ti)與新(xin)興經(jing)(jing)濟體(ti)增長同(tong)步(bu)放緩明顯。與此(ci)同(tong)時，科(ke)技創新(xin)提速(su)(su)、醫療水平進步(bu)、人口老(lao)齡化加快(kuai)、家庭結(jie)構(gou)轉(zhuan)變(bian)等多(duo)重(zhong)因(yin)素共同(tong)帶來(lai)行(xing)業(ye)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)成因(yin)和(he)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)特(te)征變(bian)化，進而重(zhong)構(gou)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)主流(liu)業(ye)態和(he)市場(chang)競(jing)爭格局。從行(xing)業(ye)層面來(lai)看，隨(sui)著外部環境的(de)脆弱性和(he)復雜性進一(yi)步(bu)升級，一(yi)些(xie)長期積(ji)累的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)隱患有所暴露，一(yi)些(xie)新(xin)興風(feng)險(xian)(xian)浮出水面，行(xing)業(ye)防范風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)任務依(yi)舊艱巨。
本次報(bao)告力求把握(wo)行業(ye)風(feng)險(xian)演變的(de)新形(xing)勢，系(xi)統分析重點領域、關鍵環(huan)節的(de)主要(yao)風(feng)險(xian)點，持(chi)續關注傳統風(feng)險(xian)問(wen)題，重視新興風(feng)險(xian)暴露(lu)，將過去一年(nian)乃至當前我國保(bao)險(xian)業(ye)面臨的(de)主要(yao)風(feng)險(xian)和(he)挑戰(zhan)歸(gui)納為七個(ge)方面：
1.保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)方面，多(duo)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)種(zhong)承(cheng)保風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)。一是(shi)健康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務賠(pei)付(fu)支出走(zou)高。2019年(nian)，健康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務賠(pei)付(fu)支出2,351億元，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)34.78%，主要由于醫療險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和重疾險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠(pei)付(fu)大(da)(da)幅(fu)增長(chang)(chang)。二(er)是(shi)人口(kou)預(yu)期壽(shou)命(ming)延(yan)長(chang)(chang)，長(chang)(chang)壽(shou)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)不(bu)斷積聚。人口(kou)預(yu)期壽(shou)命(ming)的延(yan)長(chang)(chang)將(jiang)(jiang)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)長(chang)(chang)期重疾險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和醫療險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠(pei)付(fu)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，并增加(jia)(jia)年(nian)金產品負債成本，若在產品設計時未能(neng)充分預(yu)估，將(jiang)(jiang)導(dao)致責任(ren)準備(bei)金計提不(bu)足風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。三是(shi)意(yi)外傷害險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)手(shou)(shou)續費(fei)持(chi)續處(chu)于高位(wei)。市(shi)場競爭(zheng)激(ji)烈(lie)、多(duo)數保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司議(yi)價能(neng)力有(you)限(xian)、借款(kuan)(kuan)人意(yi)外險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)手(shou)(shou)續費(fei)變相為借款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)息等(deng)、信息不(bu)對稱、財務數據失真等(deng)原因導(dao)意(yi)外險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)手(shou)(shou)續費(fei)持(chi)續處(chu)于高位(wei)。四是(shi)養殖(zhi)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠(pei)付(fu)率(lv)攀高。受非(fei)洲(zhou)豬瘟疫情(qing)等(deng)因素影(ying)響(xiang)，2019年(nian)生(sheng)豬養殖(zhi)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠(pei)款(kuan)(kuan)支出144億元，簡單賠(pei)付(fu)率(lv)127%，賠(pei)付(fu)率(lv)出現階段性(xing)同比(bi)(bi)大(da)(da)幅(fu)攀升。由于非(fei)洲(zhou)豬瘟疫情(qing)影(ying)響(xiang)具有(you)延(yan)續性(xing)，預(yu)計2020年(nian)養殖(zhi)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠(pei)付(fu)情(qing)況仍(reng)不(bu)樂觀。
2.市場風(feng)險(xian)方面，利(li)率(lv)風(feng)險(xian)和權益波(bo)動風(feng)險(xian)隱現。我國(guo)經(jing)濟增(zeng)速有(you)所(suo)放緩，隨著利(li)率(lv)市場化(hua)改革進一步深化(hua)，長(chang)期來看市場利(li)率(lv)中(zhong)樞大概率(lv)震蕩下(xia)行。同時(shi)，“資(zi)產(chan)荒”現象(xiang)仍(reng)在延續，保險(xian)資(zi)金(jin)中(zhong)長(chang)期配(pei)置壓力有(you)所(suo)加大，再投(tou)資(zi)風(feng)險(xian)有(you)所(suo)增(zeng)加。低利(li)率(lv)環(huan)境下(xia)保險(xian)公(gong)司利(li)差(cha)(cha)損(sun)風(feng)險(xian)增(zeng)大。部分公(gong)司對(dui)利(li)差(cha)(cha)損(sun)風(feng)險(xian)認識不(bu)夠(gou)充(chong)分，需關注這些公(gong)司萬能險(xian)產(chan)品帶來的“軟性”利(li)差(cha)(cha)損(sun)，防范(fan)調節機制失靈(ling)。
2019年，股(gu)票市場回(hui)升(sheng)，多數公(gong)司主動(dong)加(jia)大(da)了股(gu)票的(de)配置(zhi)比例(li)。保險行業(ye)投資股(gu)票財務收益率(lv)和綜(zong)合收益率(lv)均(jun)同比大(da)幅上升(sheng)，但仍有近兩(liang)成公(gong)司投資股(gu)票虧(kui)損(sun)。配置(zhi)股(gu)票比例(li)較高且收益率(lv)較低的(de)公(gong)司面臨較大(da)的(de)權益價(jia)格波動(dong)風險。2020年，新冠(guan)肺炎疫情在(zai)世界各國相(xiang)繼爆發，全(quan)球資本(ben)市場強力震(zhen)蕩，保險資金運用(yong)收益的(de)波動(dong)與減值壓力增加(jia)。
3.信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)方面，信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)違(wei)約(yue)風險(xian)(xian)繼續擴(kuo)大(da)。在經濟轉型(xing)、去杠(gang)桿和打破剛性兌付(fu)的(de)(de)背(bei)景(jing)下，保險(xian)(xian)資金(jin)運用(yong)(yong)(yong)面臨(lin)的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)環境嚴峻。2019年，債券違(wei)約(yue)繼續維持(chi)高位，違(wei)約(yue)存在主體分層明顯、違(wei)約(yue)原(yuan)因多樣化的(de)(de)特點。2020年，信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)債償債壓力較大(da)。在信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)逐步釋(shi)放的(de)(de)背(bei)景(jing)下，保險(xian)(xian)資金(jin)配(pei)置固定(ding)收益類資產面臨(lin)的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)加(jia)大(da)，疊(die)加(jia)地方政府債務(wu)風險(xian)(xian)攀升，保險(xian)(xian)公司持(chi)倉債券及非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)產品的(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)可能進(jin)一步暴露(lu)。隨著行(xing)業內投(tou)資非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)資產的(de)(de)比例不斷(duan)提升，部分非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)產品也隱含了信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)違(wei)約(yue)風險(xian)(xian)，信(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)敞口進(jin)一步擴(kuo)大(da)。
近年(nian)來保(bao)(bao)(bao)證保(bao)(bao)(bao)險高速發展(zhan)，其(qi)業務與(yu)經濟形勢密(mi)切相關。當前信用(yong)違約事(shi)件增多，保(bao)(bao)(bao)險公司面臨(lin)的信用(yong)風(feng)險顯(xian)著增長，賠(pei)付(fu)事(shi)件明顯(xian)增加。其(qi)原因一是受(shou)到經濟下行影(ying)響，個人還款能力下降，影(ying)響個人消(xiao)費(fei)類信用(yong)保(bao)(bao)(bao)證保(bao)(bao)(bao)險；二是隨著網貸監(jian)管政策收緊，加快了風(feng)險暴露，并將(jiang)風(feng)險傳導至保(bao)(bao)(bao)證保(bao)(bao)(bao)險。
4.操作風(feng)險(xian)(xian)方面，規范經(jing)營有(you)(you)(you)待加強。2019年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國保險(xian)(xian)監管(guan)(guan)(guan)系(xi)統累計(ji)(ji)公(gong)布(bu)947張行(xing)(xing)政處罰(fa)決定書(shu)，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)共(gong)(gong)計(ji)(ji)罰(fa)款(kuan)14,117.38萬元(yuan)(yuan)，同比下降41.44%。在嚴監管(guan)(guan)(guan)之下，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)整體合(he)規意識有(you)(you)(you)所提(ti)升，但一些行(xing)(xing)業(ye)頑疾短時間內(nei)仍無法有(you)(you)(you)效杜(du)絕。一是(shi)車(che)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)務違(wei)規頻發(fa)，監管(guan)(guan)(guan)部門針對(dui)車(che)險(xian)(xian)市場亂象強勢出(chu)手，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)共(gong)(gong)對(dui)29個地區、141個財產(chan)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司分支機構(gou)采取(qu)了停止商業(ye)險(xian)(xian)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)和費率的(de)監管(guan)(guan)(guan)措(cuo)施，涉及(ji)33家主(zhu)體；對(dui)87個財產(chan)險(xian)(xian)機構(gou)車(che)險(xian)(xian)違(wei)法違(wei)規行(xing)(xing)為進(jin)行(xing)(xing)行(xing)(xing)政處罰(fa)，罰(fa)款(kuan)1,735萬元(yuan)(yuan)，處理(li)責任(ren)人126人次(ci)。二是(shi)人身險(xian)(xian)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)開發(fa)設(she)計(ji)(ji)和管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)存在不(bu)足，在產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)設(she)計(ji)(ji)、產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)表述(shu)、產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)費率厘定及(ji)精算(suan)假設(she)、產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)材料等方面存在問題，監管(guan)(guan)(guan)部門針對(dui)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)專項核查(cha)清(qing)理(li)、產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)備案中發(fa)現的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)問題先后進(jin)行(xing)(xing)3次(ci)通報，共(gong)(gong)有(you)(you)(you)54家公(gong)司被(bei)點(dian)名。三是(shi)健康險(xian)(xian)投訴及(ji)糾紛高發(fa)，主(zhu)要(yao)由于(yu)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)中的(de)保險(xian)(xian)責任(ren)描(miao)述(shu)、除外(wai)責任(ren)描(miao)述(shu)和釋義的(de)界定不(bu)清(qing)，保險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司對(dui)健康告知提(ti)示(shi)不(bu)足、詢問內(nei)容設(she)計(ji)(ji)欠(qian)合(he)理(li)，銷售過(guo)程(cheng)中所傳遞的(de)信息與消費者理(li)解和實(shi)際情況有(you)(you)(you)明顯(xian)區別(bie)，互聯網渠道購買流程(cheng)過(guo)于(yu)簡單等問題。
5.戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)方面(mian)(mian)，險(xian)(xian)(xian)企戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)轉型(xing)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)多(duo)(duo)重挑戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。部(bu)分財(cai)產(chan)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)(si)業務(wu)模式單(dan)一，高度(du)依賴車險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務(wu)，且(qie)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)車險(xian)(xian)(xian)市(shi)場(chang)深(shen)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革(ge)、費改(gai)(gai)后(hou)經營(ying)模式轉變、合規風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)加劇等局(ju)面(mian)(mian)，同時面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)外(wai)部(bu)信用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)加大、非車險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務(wu)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管控能力不(bu)足，轉型(xing)發(fa)展戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)不(bu)清晰等問題。人身險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)(si)經營(ying)管理和人才隊伍(wu)尚未經受(shou)過復雜經濟(ji)周期的全面(mian)(mian)考(kao)驗，風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管理實踐尚不(bu)成熟(shu)。少(shao)數(shu)公司(si)(si)依賴過去的粗放發(fa)展路(lu)徑(jing)，缺乏改(gai)(gai)革(ge)勇氣；部(bu)分公司(si)(si)缺乏創新勇氣，不(bu)愿走出(chu)舒適區；部(bu)分公司(si)(si)雖積極轉型(xing)，但在外(wai)部(bu)競爭和內部(bu)經營(ying)的雙重壓力下，戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)選擇在公司(si)(si)治理、產(chan)品戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)略(lve)(lve)、渠道建設、競爭力等方面(mian)(mian)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)多(duo)(duo)重挑戰(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。
6.治(zhi)理風(feng)險方面，股(gu)權(quan)管理等方面仍存(cun)(cun)諸多(duo)問題(ti)(ti)。一方面，股(gu)東(dong)對保險行業經營規(gui)律不(bu)認(ren)同是導致公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)治(zhi)理風(feng)險的(de)重要(yao)原因。具體來看，有(you)些公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)治(zhi)理機制(zhi)不(bu)健全，股(gu)東(dong)越位、非正常關(guan)聯交易(yi)問題(ti)(ti)較突出(chu)，公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)資(zi)源(yuan)頻(pin)繁(fan)被關(guan)聯方占用(yong)；有(you)些外(wai)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)中外(wai)資(zi)股(gu)東(dong)持股(gu)比例各(ge)50%的(de)股(gu)權(quan)結構，控(kong)制(zhi)權(quan)相當(dang)；少數公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股(gu)東(dong)關(guan)系復雜(za)，隱藏股(gu)東(dong)關(guan)聯關(guan)系，仍存(cun)(cun)股(gu)權(quan)代持、隱性(xing)股(gu)東(dong)等問題(ti)(ti)。另一方面，股(gu)權(quan)變更頻(pin)繁(fan)、股(gu)權(quan)質押(ya)比例較高(gao)、高(gao)管人(ren)員變更頻(pin)繁(fan)等情形不(bu)利于公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)長期(qi)戰略的(de)持續性(xing)和有(you)效(xiao)性(xing)。2019年，共30家財產險和人(ren)身險公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)發布股(gu)東(dong)變更公(gong)(gong)告，部分公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)股(gu)權(quan)變動凸顯出(chu)業績承壓、經營困難(nan)等問題(ti)(ti)，個別公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)股(gu)權(quan)流轉不(bu)定(ding)。
7.新(xin)興風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)方面(mian)，外部變革(ge)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)挑戰。一是(shi)科技變革(ge)給(gei)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)多重挑戰。保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)科技加(jia)速保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務數字化(hua)轉型，但部分保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)對(dui)于轉型所需的(de)頂層設計或總體(ti)規劃認(ren)識不足，缺乏整體(ti)布局和(he)統籌(chou)規劃，對(dui)公司(si)操作風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)和(he)合規風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)控帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)巨(ju)大(da)挑戰。科技運(yun)用帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)的(de)數據(ju)隱私安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)問題、網絡安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、信息安(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)等(deng)衍生風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)亦不容忽(hu)視。二是(shi)會計準則變革(ge)對(dui)行業(ye)提出更高(gao)要(yao)求。IFRS9和(he)IFRS17將(jiang)給(gei)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)的(de)會計核算、財(cai)務管(guan)理和(he)信息披露帶(dai)來(lai)(lai)重大(da)變化(hua)，新(xin)準則的(de)復雜性和(he)實施難度，對(dui)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)財(cai)務、精算、IT、戰略(lve)規劃、業(ye)務發展、投資策(ce)略(lve)、營運(yun)管(guan)理、風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理等(deng)公司(si)經營方方面(mian)面(mian)都將(jiang)產生巨(ju)大(da)影(ying)響(xiang)。
（三）專家觀測視角
由(you)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)行(xing)業風險(xian)(xian)(xian)評估專家委員會專家為(wei)報(bao)告撰(zhuan)寫的六篇外部專家風險(xian)(xian)(xian)觀(guan)測專題文章(zhang)，集中(zhong)反(fan)映了對(dui)融資性個(ge)人(ren)保(bao)(bao)證保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理、中(zhong)國車險(xian)(xian)(xian)市場(chang)轉型升級、壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司高(gao)質量(liang)發展、中(zhong)小公司發展健(jian)康保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、低利率下壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)公司經營、保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)科技(ji)賦(fu)能風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理等問題及對(dui)策的思考和研究。
財產險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務(wu)方(fang)面(mian)，對于融(rong)資類個(ge)人保(bao)證(zheng)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，專家認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)，該業(ye)務(wu)實質上是(shi)為(wei)(wei)銀行(xing)或(huo)貸款(kuan)機構的(de)(de)個(ge)人貸款(kuan)提供信(xin)用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)增信(xin)服(fu)務(wu)，為(wei)(wei)個(ge)人信(xin)用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)提供兜底保(bao)障，專家還對該業(ye)務(wu)風(feng)控模型和監控體系進(jin)(jin)行(xing)了簡述，建議輸出逐保(bao)單(dan)的(de)(de)預期(qi)賠付率并以其為(wei)(wei)核心形(xing)成一套指標體系；對于車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉型方(fang)面(mian)，專家認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司(si)除了提升自身的(de)(de)承保(bao)和理賠服(fu)務(wu)水平之外，還需對不(bu)同場景的(de)(de)客戶(hu)觸達場景進(jin)(jin)行(xing)差異(yi)性分析，實現與汽(qi)車(che)生(sheng)態的(de)(de)深度融(rong)合，通過(guo)開發(fa)(fa)客戶(hu)長期(qi)發(fa)(fa)展模式(shi)，進(jin)(jin)一步降低車(che)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)整體經(jing)營(ying)成本(ben)。
壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)認為(wei)，壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)的(de)高質量發展表現為(wei)基礎實(shi)力(li)(li)顯著(zhu)增強、服務(wu)能(neng)力(li)(li)持(chi)續(xu)提(ti)升、創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)動力(li)(li)層(ceng)層(ceng)傳導、競爭(zheng)活(huo)力(li)(li)不(bu)(bu)斷迸(beng)發以及(ji)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)抵抗力(li)(li)穩步提(ti)高等(deng)(deng)五個(ge)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)。目前我國(guo)壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)實(shi)現了“量”的(de)高速增長(chang)，同(tong)時面(mian)(mian)臨著(zhu)“質”的(de)多(duo)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)：產品風險(xian)(xian)(xian)保障程度(du)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)且(qie)嚴重同(tong)質化(hua)(hua)，競爭(zheng)焦點集(ji)中(zhong)在短(duan)期營銷費用投入等(deng)(deng)低效率(lv)階(jie)段，代理(li)人(ren)隊(dui)伍(wu)大(da)進大(da)出(chu)現象(xiang)突出(chu)且(qie)專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)化(hua)(hua)能(neng)力(li)(li)素質不(bu)(bu)高，科技(ji)建(jian)設創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)成(cheng)果碎片化(hua)(hua)且(qie)多(duo)集(ji)中(zhong)在營銷領域，粗放的(de)發展方(fang)式(shi)已逐漸(jian)落(luo)后于現階(jie)段保險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)高質量發展的(de)要求(qiu)。只有轉(zhuan)變(bian)經(jing)營發展方(fang)式(shi)、深(shen)(shen)化(hua)(hua)供(gong)給(gei)側改革、探(tan)索(suo)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)發展動力(li)(li)，才(cai)能(neng)保障行業(ye)(ye)繼續(xu)保持(chi)較(jiao)高增速的(de)可持(chi)續(xu)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)發展。健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)認為(wei)，當前我國(guo)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)市場(chang)正處于高速發展階(jie)段，隨著(zhu)醫改向(xiang)縱深(shen)(shen)不(bu)(bu)斷推進，國(guo)家(jia)關(guan)于健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)定位也發生深(shen)(shen)刻變(bian)化(hua)(hua)。一系(xi)列利好政(zheng)策的(de)出(chu)臺(tai)，為(wei)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)打(da)開(kai)了創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)發展的(de)空間，同(tong)時，人(ren)口老齡化(hua)(hua)趨勢下(xia)重大(da)疾病定義、經(jing)驗發生率(lv)表的(de)修(xiu)訂將激發新(xin)一輪健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)需(xu)求(qiu)。在此背景下(xia)，我國(guo)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)市場(chang)存在著(zhu)中(zhong)小保險(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)經(jing)營健(jian)(jian)康(kang)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)力(li)(li)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)、大(da)公(gong)司(si)對(dui)中(zhong)小公(gong)司(si)形成(cheng)全方(fang)位擠壓以及(ji)互(hu)聯網保險(xian)(xian)(xian)忽視風險(xian)(xian)(xian)防控等(deng)(deng)問題(ti)。因此，專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)提(ti)出(chu)，中(zhong)小公(gong)司(si)發展健(jian)(jian)康(kang)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)+健(jian)(jian)康(kang)管理(li)，提(ti)升核心競爭(zheng)力(li)(li)，在戰略把(ba)握上應關(guan)注建(jian)設專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)業(ye)(ye)團隊(dui)、整合服務(wu)平臺(tai)，搭(da)建(jian)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)“生態(tai)圈”；承保“帶病”人(ren)群，力(li)(li)爭(zheng)稅收優惠(hui)；提(ti)升線(xian)上風控能(neng)力(li)(li)，持(chi)續(xu)優化(hua)(hua)客(ke)戶(hu)體驗。
資(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)匹配方面(mian)(mian)，專家認(ren)為(wei)，利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)下行使(shi)得壽險公(gong)(gong)司的凈利(li)潤與(yu)償付能力充足率(lv)(lv)(lv)承壓(ya)，再投(tou)資(zi)(zi)風險加大(da)，資(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)錯配風險增大(da)，利(li)差損擴(kuo)大(da)。風險貼現率(lv)(lv)(lv)和長期(qi)(qi)(qi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)收益(yi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)均面(mian)(mian)臨下調壓(ya)力，而二(er)者(zhe)對內(nei)含價值影(ying)響一(yi)正(zheng)一(yi)負可相互抵(di)消，預計利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)下行短期(qi)(qi)(qi)對內(nei)含價值影(ying)響有限，長期(qi)(qi)(qi)或有負面(mian)(mian)影(ying)響。可參考日(ri)本、美(mei)國等其他國家在利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)下行周期(qi)(qi)(qi)采取的管控措施(shi)，并提(ti)出如下建議：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)監管加強(qiang)預定利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)管制；二(er)是(shi)(shi)壽險公(gong)(gong)司負債(zhai)端優化產(chan)品結構，降(jiang)低負債(zhai)成本；三是(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)端拉長資(zi)(zi)產(chan)久(jiu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，適(shi)度提(ti)升權益(yi)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)占比，重視另(ling)類投(tou)資(zi)(zi)機會，做好資(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)匹配管理(li)。
此外，依(yi)托(tuo)科技(ji)(ji)賦(fu)能(neng)(neng)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)方面(mian)，專(zhuan)家(jia)認(ren)為，以(yi)大數(shu)據(ju)、云(yun)計算、區塊鏈等為代表(biao)的保(bao)險(xian)(xian)科技(ji)(ji)給予保(bao)險(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)以(yi)更多(duo)的機會和(he)可能(neng)(neng)。隨著科技(ji)(ji)的發展，算力的提升推(tui)動風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)延伸到以(yi)資(zi)產負債表(biao)和(he)償付能(neng)(neng)力報表(biao)為核心的資(zi)本-財務(wu)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)中。其(qi)強化了(le)量化分析能(neng)(neng)力，依(yi)托(tuo)中臺實現前瞻性的管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)。風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)依(yi)靠新的科學技(ji)(ji)術手段與(yu)具體的業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)場景實現結合，形成新的管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)手段和(he)方法。科技(ji)(ji)賦(fu)能(neng)(neng)是對保(bao)險(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)整體運營能(neng)(neng)力的重(zhong)大調(diao)整，涉及到多(duo)個層面(mian)。保(bao)險(xian)(xian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)要(yao)從客觀條件出發，根據(ju)自身情(qing)況，合理(li)布局，扎實推(tui)進(jin)(jin)智能(neng)(neng)化風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)(guan)(guan)理(li)步(bu)伐。