發布日期(qi)：2021-09-16

 

    2021年(nian)9月，中國保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障基(ji)金有限(xian)責(ze)任公司(si)在京發布(bu)《中國保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)2021》（以(yi)下簡稱“報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)”），這是(shi)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)障基(ji)金公司(si)自(zi)2015年(nian)開始、連續第七(qi)年(nian)編寫并發布(bu)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)年(nian)度風險(xian)(xian)評(ping)估(gu)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)。該報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)旨在通過細(xi)致梳理行(xing)(xing)業(ye)現狀(zhuang)和風險(xian)(xian)問(wen)題(ti)，為保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)監管(guan)部門(men)、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)和機(ji)構提供有價值的參(can)考(kao)信(xin)息，以(yi)此促進(jin)提升行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)管(guan)理水平。

 

    2020年，面(mian)(mian)臨錯綜復雜的國(guo)際形(xing)勢、艱巨(ju)繁重(zhong)的國(guo)內改革任務(wu)，特別是(shi)新冠肺炎疫(yi)情的嚴重(zhong)沖擊，不(bu)穩(wen)定(ding)、不(bu)確定(ding)因素顯著增加。受(shou)益(yi)于(yu)經濟(ji)韌性(xing)和制度優勢，我國(guo)經濟(ji)增長好于(yu)預期，各項經濟(ji)指標逐(zhu)漸(jian)改善，金(jin)融體(ti)系(xi)重(zhong)點(dian)領域的增量(liang)風(feng)險(xian)得到有(you)效控(kong)制，存量(liang)風(feng)險(xian)得到逐(zhu)步化解，金(jin)融風(feng)險(xian)總體(ti)可控(kong)，守住了(le)不(bu)發生系(xi)統(tong)性(xing)金(jin)融風(feng)險(xian)的底(di)線。目(mu)前，境外疫(yi)情仍(reng)在蔓延，內外部(bu)環境將繼(ji)續(xu)發生復雜變化，國(guo)內改革發展穩(wen)定(ding)的任務(wu)依(yi)然艱巨(ju)繁重(zhong)，我國(guo)保險(xian)行業亦面(mian)(mian)臨多重(zhong)風(feng)險(xian)挑戰。

 

    本次編撰的(de)(de)(de)(de)報告(gao)包括經(jing)濟(ji)金融環境、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)運行(xing)(xing)情況、行(xing)(xing)業(ye)風險評估(gu)和專(zhuan)家(jia)觀測(ce)視角(jiao)四(si)個部分，報告(gao)在(zai)回顧2020年(nian)度保險業(ye)內外部環境的(de)(de)(de)(de)基礎(chu)上，對行(xing)(xing)業(ye)運行(xing)(xing)形(xing)勢(shi)進行(xing)(xing)了較為全面的(de)(de)(de)(de)闡述，就新冠(guan)肺炎疫情對保險行(xing)(xing)業(ye)造成(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)沖(chong)擊、當(dang)前行(xing)(xing)業(ye)經(jing)營(ying)發展中存在(zai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險問(wen)題重(zhong)點展開分析，主要內容(rong)如下：

 

    一、運行情況

 

    2020年，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)整體穩(wen)健運(yun)行，保(bao)費復蘇趨勢明顯，實現原保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)費收入4.53萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長6.12%；資(zi)(zi)產(chan)規模平(ping)穩(wen)增(zeng)長，配置(zhi)結(jie)構(gou)基(ji)本穩(wen)定，年末總資(zi)(zi)產(chan)23.30萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，較(jiao)年初增(zeng)長13.29%；凈資(zi)(zi)產(chan)2.75萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，較(jiao)年初增(zeng)長10.95%。保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)助力(li)經濟社會發展(zhan)大局，持(chi)續(xu)加大對經濟社會發展(zhan)重點領域和(he)薄弱環節的支(zhi)持(chi)力(li)度(du)，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)障功能(neng)持(chi)續(xu)增(zeng)強(qiang)，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)金額8,710 萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，賠款和(he)給付(fu)支(zhi)出13,907 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。行業(ye)(ye)償付(fu)能(neng)力(li)總體充足，消費者權益保(bao)護力(li)度(du)持(chi)續(xu)加強(qiang)。

 

 

    二、風險評估

 

    2020年，受年初(chu)新冠(guan)肺(fei)炎(yan)疫情影(ying)響，保(bao)險公司一季度業(ye)(ye)務(wu)發(fa)展(zhan)受阻，隨著國(guo)(guo)內疫情影(ying)響逐步緩解、企業(ye)(ye)復(fu)工復(fu)產及國(guo)(guo)家系列專(zhuan)項扶持政策的實(shi)施，保(bao)險業(ye)(ye)加固(gu)了行(xing)業(ye)(ye)風險“堤壩”，做好了重(zhong)點(dian)領域風險防控，整體延續了穩(wen)定(ding)發(fa)展(zhan)勢(shi)頭(tou)。目前，內外部(bu)環境繼續發(fa)生(sheng)復(fu)雜變(bian)化，國(guo)(guo)內改(gai)革發(fa)展(zhan)穩(wen)定(ding)的任務(wu)依然艱(jian)巨(ju)繁重(zhong)，我國(guo)(guo)保(bao)險行(xing)業(ye)(ye)亦面(mian)臨多重(zhong)風險挑(tiao)戰。

 

    報(bao)告(gao)力求把握行(xing)業風險(xian)演(yan)變的(de)新(xin)形(xing)勢，系統分析(xi)重點領域、關鍵環節的(de)主要風險(xian)點，持續關注傳統風險(xian)問題(ti)，重視新(xin)興(xing)風險(xian)暴露，總結分析(xi)了過去一年乃至當前我國(guo)保險(xian)業面臨(lin)的(de)主要風險(xian)和挑戰。

 

    （一）疫情對保險行業帶來的沖擊

 

    保險風險方面，保險營銷渠道挑戰加劇。一是傳統營銷員渠道銷售受阻，人身險公司價值積累速度放緩。疫情對傳統營銷員渠道造成明顯沖擊，營銷模式受阻，無法有效開展業務，導致該渠道新業務增速放緩，營銷員收入下降進而人員不斷流失。從更深層次看，價值率較高的新單期交保費負增長，導致價值積累的速度明顯放緩，影響人身險公司長期盈利能力和風險抵御能力。二是銀郵渠道重新快速增長，競爭加劇將導致渠道成本上升。疫情沖擊下，部分人身險公司重新加大對銀郵渠道的投入，銀郵渠道原保費收入保持了較快增速。競爭加劇導致渠道成本上升，中小人身險公司缺乏議價權，手續費率上行壓力較大；快速增長加速資本消耗，短期內銀郵渠道新單保費仍以躉交產品為主，價值率低、資本消耗較快。三是網銷渠道未形成強力支撐，銷售長期保障產品能力有待提升。疫情影響下，保險公司加速發展網銷渠道，互聯網人身險業務增速大幅超過同期規模保費增速；但網銷渠道占比仍較低，尚未形成有力的渠道支撐，面臨銷售長期保障產品的能力不足、線上線下融合力度不夠等嚴峻挑戰。

 

 

    信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，受(shou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)杠(gang)桿(gan)率攀升及貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策基調(diao)調(diao)整影(ying)響，外(wai)部(bu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)向(xiang)(xiang)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)傳導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概率上(shang)升，資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)端(duan)和(he)負(fu)債(zhai)端(duan)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)均有所(suo)增加(jia)(jia)。面(mian)(mian)對疫情沖擊，貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)定向(xiang)(xiang)寬(kuan)松政(zheng)(zheng)策、信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)貸政(zheng)(zheng)策對信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)起到(dao)了(le)(le)延緩(huan)效果，宏觀杠(gang)桿(gan)率階(jie)段(duan)性(xing)大(da)(da)幅攀升。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)疫情得到(dao)有效控制，貨幣(bi)(bi)(bi)政(zheng)(zheng)策基調(diao)轉向(xiang)(xiang)均衡中(zhong)性(xing)，延緩(huan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)逐步釋放(fang)，信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)有所(suo)放(fang)大(da)(da)。2020年(nian)，債(zhai)券市(shi)場違(wei)約(yue)(yue)規模大(da)(da)幅增加(jia)(jia)，違(wei)約(yue)(yue)主體(ti)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)國企(qi)占(zhan)比明顯提升，地方(fang)國企(qi)頻(pin)(pin)頻(pin)(pin)出現信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事件，超出市(shi)場預(yu)期。在此背景(jing)下，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金配置固定收益類資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)，疊(die)加(jia)(jia)地方(fang)政(zheng)(zheng)府債(zhai)務風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)攀升，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司持(chi)倉(cang)債(zhai)券及非(fei)標(biao)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)可能進一(yi)步暴露。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)行業(ye)(ye)內投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)非(fei)標(biao)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)比例(li)不斷提升，部(bu)分非(fei)標(biao)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)也隱含了(le)(le)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)，部(bu)分保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)集合資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)托計(ji)劃和(he)債(zhai)權(quan)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)計(ji)劃相繼出現違(wei)約(yue)(yue)事件。隨(sui)著(zhu)(zhu)債(zhai)券、非(fei)標(biao)等金融(rong)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)違(wei)約(yue)(yue)，外(wai)部(bu)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)向(xiang)(xiang)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金運用(yong)(yong)傳導(dao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控難度將(jiang)持(chi)續增加(jia)(jia)。同(tong)時，疫情導(dao)致中(zhong)小企(qi)業(ye)(ye)經營壓力較大(da)(da)，現金流緊張，融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)逾期率增加(jia)(jia)，造成(cheng)為中(zhong)小企(qi)業(ye)(ye)提供(gong)增信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)保(bao)(bao)業(ye)(ye)務面(mian)(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)信(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)加(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)。

 

    市(shi)(shi)(shi)場風(feng)險(xian)(xian)方面，短期利率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)變化導致(zhi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)值波(bo)動(dong)加(jia)大，長(chang)期利率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)下(xia)(xia)(xia)行趨(qu)勢將(jiang)帶(dai)(dai)來(lai)利差損(sun)和(he)(he)再(zai)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，權益(yi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場波(bo)動(dong)加(jia)大直接影(ying)響險(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)收益(yi)。2020年(nian)，債(zhai)券(quan)收益(yi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)加(jia)大，雖然保(bao)險(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)配(pei)置(zhi)債(zhai)券(quan)主要(yao)為(wei)持(chi)有至到(dao)期，但(dan)仍有相當一部(bu)(bu)分資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)配(pei)置(zhi)為(wei)可供出售和(he)(he)交易(yi)性金(jin)融資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)，短期波(bo)動(dong)可能導致(zhi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)市(shi)(shi)(shi)值變化。長(chang)期來(lai)看，中(zhong)長(chang)期利率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)中(zhong)樞呈現下(xia)(xia)(xia)行趨(qu)勢對(dui)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司帶(dai)(dai)來(lai)多重(zhong)考驗(yan)。一是(shi)(shi)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)責(ze)任準備金(jin)增(zeng)加(jia)，對(dui)公(gong)司償(chang)付能力和(he)(he)當期盈(ying)余帶(dai)(dai)來(lai)負面影(ying)響；二是(shi)(shi)再(zai)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)和(he)(he)利差損(sun)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)加(jia)大；三(san)是(shi)(shi)在(zai)再(zai)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)壓力下(xia)(xia)(xia)，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司會傾向于提(ti)高風(feng)險(xian)(xian)偏(pian)好(hao)，帶(dai)(dai)來(lai)更高的(de)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。2020年(nian)，在(zai)全(quan)球放水的(de)背景下(xia)(xia)(xia)，全(quan)球股(gu)票市(shi)(shi)(shi)場震蕩上行，但(dan)外(wai)部(bu)(bu)不確(que)定性因素(su)增(zeng)加(jia)，全(quan)球金(jin)融體系脆(cui)弱性上升，國(guo)內外(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)本市(shi)(shi)(shi)場波(bo)動(dong)加(jia)大。利率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)下(xia)(xia)(xia)行環境下(xia)(xia)(xia)，優質資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)相對(dui)稀缺，險(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)對(dui)股(gu)票投資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)偏(pian)好(hao)持(chi)續加(jia)強(qiang)，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司面臨的(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場波(bo)動(dong)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)將(jiang)進一步加(jia)大。

 

    （二）保險行業自身存在的風險

 

    公(gong)司(si)(si)治(zhi)理風險(xian)方面，股(gu)(gu)權(quan)結(jie)構(gou)變化、股(gu)(gu)權(quan)質(zhi)押比例較(jiao)高、高管人(ren)員(yuan)頻(pin)繁變更或(huo)(huo)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)空缺(que)等情(qing)(qing)形不(bu)利于公(gong)司(si)(si)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)戰略的(de)持續(xu)性和(he)有(you)效性，將(jiang)直(zhi)接(jie)影響公(gong)司(si)(si)穩(wen)健經營和(he)長(chang)(chang)遠(yuan)發展。2020年，共計27家(jia)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)發生股(gu)(gu)權(quan)變更，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)5家(jia)公(gong)司(si)(si)年內變更2次及以(yi)上(shang)；年末約(yue)四分(fen)之一的(de)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)存(cun)(cun)在股(gu)(gu)東股(gu)(gu)權(quan)質(zhi)押或(huo)(huo)凍結(jie)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)8家(jia)公(gong)司(si)(si)質(zhi)押或(huo)(huo)凍結(jie)股(gu)(gu)權(quan)比例超過50%。另外，少數公(gong)司(si)(si)股(gu)(gu)東關(guan)系復(fu)雜，股(gu)(gu)權(quan)代持、隱性股(gu)(gu)東等問題(ti)較(jiao)為突出，部(bu)分(fen)公(gong)司(si)(si)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)存(cun)(cun)在違規股(gu)(gu)權(quan)待清退(tui)。股(gu)(gu)權(quan)結(jie)構(gou)不(bu)穩(wen)定，直(zhi)接(jie)帶(dai)來高管的(de)頻(pin)繁變動和(he)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)空缺(que)。2020年發生股(gu)(gu)權(quan)結(jie)構(gou)變化的(de)公(gong)司(si)(si)中(zhong)，有(you)13家(jia)同時(shi)存(cun)(cun)在董事長(chang)(chang)或(huo)(huo)總(zong)經理變更情(qing)(qing)況，有(you)9家(jia)同時(shi)存(cun)(cun)在董事長(chang)(chang)或(huo)(huo)總(zong)經理空缺(que)情(qing)(qing)況。

 

    戰略(lve)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)方面，中小財產(chan)(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)轉(zhuan)型困(kun)難(nan)。2020年(nian)，財產(chan)(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)行業凈(jing)利潤同比下降，綜合成(cheng)本率走(zou)高，出現(xian)(xian)行業性承保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)虧(kui)損。行業兩極分(fen)化現(xian)(xian)象(xiang)愈發嚴重，中小財產(chan)(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)經營發展困(kun)難(nan)。根據保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)年(nian)度信息(xi)披露(lu)報告數據顯(xian)(xian)示，2020年(nian)，78家中小財產(chan)(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)前五大險(xian)(xian)種合計承保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)虧(kui)損98.78億元；經營性現(xian)(xian)金凈(jing)流(liu)入6.23億元，其(qi)中36家公司(si)凈(jing)流(liu)出。受(shou)新冠肺炎疫情影(ying)響，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)展業、承保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)、理(li)賠、保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)全(quan)等(deng)各項業務更加依賴于(yu)線上系統，更需(xu)要借助科(ke)技賦能(neng)解(jie)決復雜(za)的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)管理(li)問題(ti)，向數字化轉(zhuan)型。而(er)中小財產(chan)(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)可用的基礎數據較少，科(ke)技化水平(ping)較低，轉(zhuan)型發展困(kun)難(nan)更加凸顯(xian)(xian)。

 

    保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)方面，健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)壓力(li)較大。健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業務快(kuai)速發展(zhan)，2016-2020年間復合增速高(gao)達27.67%。同時，健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業務面臨突(tu)(tu)出(chu)的經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)壓力(li)：一是(shi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)疾(ji)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠付走高(gao)。重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大疾(ji)病(bing)發病(bing)率和檢出(chu)率呈上升趨勢，逆選(xuan)擇效(xiao)應凸顯，部分保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)疾(ji)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)能(neng)力(li)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足，存在非理性競爭、定價(jia)基礎薄弱、風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)篩選(xuan)能(neng)力(li)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足等(deng)突(tu)(tu)出(chu)問題(ti)。二是(shi)短期醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)虧損嚴重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。近年來醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)費用通(tong)脹(zhang)明顯，醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)成本增速持續高(gao)于(yu)居民收(shou)入增速，而保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司存在醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)數據(ju)共享瓶頸，缺乏對醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)行為的有效(xiao)管控(kong)手段，部分網銷醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)核保(bao)(bao)較為寬松，消(xiao)費者隱瞞既往病(bing)史(shi)導致(zhi)醫(yi)(yi)療(liao)費用水平(ping)高(gao)于(yu)預期假設。三(san)是(shi)新型普惠險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)模(mo)式尚不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)成熟，面臨經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)驗數據(ju)不(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)足、聲譽風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)難(nan)等(deng)挑戰。健(jian)(jian)康(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)面臨的風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)問題(ti)容易(yi)被快(kuai)速發展(zhan)的業務規模(mo)所掩蓋(gai)，對此行業還需高(gao)度關(guan)注(zhu)，盡早防范，避(bi)免(mian)陷入盲(mang)目發展(zhan)業務導致(zhi)嚴重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)虧損的經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)營(ying)困境。

 

 

    操作風險方面，保險公司規范經營仍然存在短板。2020年，監管機構行政處罰力度繼續加大，全國銀保監會機關及派出機構對保險業共作出行政處罰決定2,084件，處罰保險公司1,226家次，處罰責任人員1,647人次，警告1,992家/人次，處罰金額合計2.6億元。當前比較突出的問題包括：一是車險業務違規問題。2020年，財產險公司受到行政處罰決定中，前五大事由分別為編制虛假材料、虛構中介業務套取費用、財務或業務數據不真實、給予投保人保險合同以外的利益、虛列費用，多數涉及車險業務。二是人身險產品開發管理行為。2020年，監管部門針對產品問題先后進行3次通報，合計點名人身險公司62家次，主要問題包括：產品條款存在表述不清晰、與法律規定不符等問題；產品設計存在長險短做、保障功能弱化、產品責任設計與產品定義不符、預定退保率畸高等問題；產品費率厘定存在較大問題；產品材料報送不規范、信息填寫不規范、文件引用有誤等；產品組合銷售規則存在缺陷、法律責任人任職資質不合規、準備金計提方式不合規等。

 

    三、專家觀測視角

 

    保險行業(ye)風(feng)險評估專(zhuan)(zhuan)家委員(yuan)會專(zhuan)(zhuan)家為報(bao)告(gao)撰寫了八篇(pian)風(feng)險觀測專(zhuan)(zhuan)題(ti)文章，集中反映了專(zhuan)(zhuan)家在細分領域的研究成果。

 

    財(cai)產險(xian)(xian)業務(wu)方面，專家(jia)認(ren)(ren)為，車險(xian)(xian)綜合(he)改(gai)革對(dui)經營(ying)(ying)管理提出了更高(gao)(gao)(gao)的挑(tiao)戰，但機遇與(yu)挑(tiao)戰并(bing)存，精細(xi)化管理、專業化經營(ying)(ying)成為保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)市場競(jing)爭(zheng)力(li)的關鍵；銷售競(jing)爭(zheng)方面，專家(jia)認(ren)(ren)為粗放(fang)式(shi)增(zeng)長(chang)模式(shi)導(dao)致保(bao)險(xian)(xian)銷售內卷化，中小財(cai)險(xian)(xian)公司(si)應對(dui)外挖掘新(xin)的增(zeng)長(chang)點，對(dui)內提高(gao)(gao)(gao)自身實力(li)，防范內卷化帶來的一系(xi)列風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業財(cai)產承保(bao)方面，專家(jia)認(ren)(ren)為在“碳達峰、碳中和”目標(biao)下，電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應高(gao)(gao)(gao)度清潔化、能源(yuan)消費高(gao)(gao)(gao)度電(dian)(dian)氣化、發展特高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓電(dian)(dian)網(wang)等均帶來新(xin)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，險(xian)(xian)企應主動研究能源(yuan)轉型，共同維持合(he)理承保(bao)條件，積極(ji)參與(yu)共建電(dian)(dian)力(li)安全(quan)生態圈。

 

    人(ren)(ren)(ren)身險(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務方(fang)面，專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)認(ren)為，目(mu)前人(ren)(ren)(ren)身險(xian)要(yao)重視流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)風險(xian)，償付(fu)能力(li)充足的(de)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)公(gong)司，仍有(you)可能因為流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)風險(xian)管理不(bu)(bu)(bu)善影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)正(zheng)常經營。專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)指(zhi)出，目(mu)前影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)人(ren)(ren)(ren)身險(xian)公(gong)司流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)的(de)重要(yao)因素有(you)以下(xia)(xia)幾點(dian)：受(shou)新(xin)冠肺(fei)炎疫情(qing)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)造(zao)成保(bao)(bao)費(fei)收入下(xia)(xia)降，退保(bao)(bao)金(jin)支(zhi)出上升(sheng)；中(zhong)短存(cun)續期(qi)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)集中(zhong)到期(qi)造(zao)成滿期(qi)金(jin)給付(fu)壓力(li)；低(di)利率環境(jing)及激(ji)烈的(de)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)競爭(zheng)，促使(shi)公(gong)司為了提升(sheng)投資收益，不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷增(zeng)加非流(liu)動(dong)投資資產(chan)(chan)；人(ren)(ren)(ren)身險(xian)公(gong)司對于(yu)一些大(da)類(lei)資產(chan)(chan)的(de)投資端策略(lve)趨同，在極端市(shi)場情(qing)況下(xia)(xia)，易產(chan)(chan)生“單(dan)邊市(shi)場”，引發(fa)市(shi)場流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)問(wen)題等(deng)(deng)。專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)建議(yi)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)身險(xian)公(gong)司在現(xian)有(you)流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)風險(xian)管理框架之上，應考慮進一步提升(sheng)流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)風險(xian)管理的(de)有(you)效性(xing)(xing)。健康(kang)(kang)險(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務方(fang)面，專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)認(ren)為，我(wo)國(guo)健康(kang)(kang)險(xian)發(fa)展(zhan)空間較(jiao)大(da)，近年發(fa)展(zhan)較(jiao)快，但真(zhen)正(zheng)能解決民生醫療(liao)(liao)問(wen)題，幫助醫保(bao)(bao)社保(bao)(bao)緩解壓力(li)的(de)長期(qi)醫療(liao)(liao)保(bao)(bao)障類(lei)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)卻面臨供(gong)給不(bu)(bu)(bu)足、風險(xian)識別手段缺乏、盈利難等(deng)(deng)挑戰。專(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)家(jia)(jia)(jia)指(zhi)出，目(mu)前存(cun)在醫療(liao)(liao)險(xian)競爭(zheng)集中(zhong)在中(zhong)低(di)端層次、重疾險(xian)定(ding)價不(bu)(bu)(bu)足、其他類(lei)型產(chan)(chan)品(pin)發(fa)展(zhan)程度較(jiao)低(di)和(he)健康(kang)(kang)服務使(shi)用率低(di)等(deng)(deng)問(wen)題，要(yao)注重產(chan)(chan)品(pin)創新(xin)，利用大(da)數(shu)據(ju)技術實現(xian)智能定(ding)價，要(yao)建設新(xin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務模式，打造(zao)“健康(kang)(kang)險(xian)+健康(kang)(kang)管理服務”生態。

 

    資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)匹配方面(mian)，專家認為(wei)，利(li)差(cha)損風(feng)險是當(dang)前面(mian)臨的主要風(feng)險之一。負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)端成(cheng)本呈現剛性，短期(qi)(qi)無法改善，而在低利(li)率(lv)市場環(huan)境(jing)下(xia)，收(shou)益(yi)(yi)率(lv)下(xia)降拉低整(zheng)體(ti)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)平(ping)均(jun)收(shou)益(yi)(yi)水平(ping)，使資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)端再(zai)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)風(feng)險突出(chu)。同時，在現行財務準則體(ti)系(xi)下(xia)，準備金貼現率(lv)跟(gen)隨利(li)率(lv)下(xia)降，未來存(cun)在的利(li)差(cha)損在當(dang)期(qi)(qi)財務報(bao)表(biao)中全部體(ti)現，導致當(dang)期(qi)(qi)虧損及償付(fu)能力不足。專家提(ti)出(chu)，應加強資(zi)(zi)負(fu)(fu)聯動，優(you)化資(zi)(zi)負(fu)(fu)匹配水平(ping)。負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)端建(jian)議優(you)化產(chan)(chan)(chan)品期(qi)(qi)限(xian)，降低久期(qi)(qi)缺口(kou)，持續努力降低負(fu)(fu)債(zhai)(zhai)(zhai)成(cheng)本和提(ti)升定價管(guan)理(li)水平(ping)等(deng)；資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)端建(jian)議拉長(chang)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)久期(qi)(qi)，做好期(qi)(qi)限(xian)結(jie)構匹配，優(you)化資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)配置結(jie)構，提(ti)升投(tou)資(zi)(zi)收(shou)益(yi)(yi)水平(ping)和加強償付(fu)能力管(guan)理(li)等(deng)。

 

    此外，建設(she)與(yu)經(jing)營(ying)養(yang)老社(she)區(qu)方(fang)面(mian)，專(zhuan)家認為，我國(guo)的(de)人口老齡(ling)化程度(du)進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)加(jia)深(shen)，養(yang)老儲備不足的(de)問題(ti)突(tu)出。目(mu)前，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)扎堆養(yang)老社(she)區(qu)建設(she)，要(yao)關(guan)注養(yang)老地產市場長(chang)(chang)期(qi)供需(xu)失衡導(dao)致(zhi)價(jia)格(ge)的(de)波動等(deng)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。專(zhuan)家建議(yi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)養(yang)老社(she)區(qu)建設(she)方(fang)面(mian)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)應在(zai)(zai)(zai)戰略上慎重選擇模式(shi)和時機(ji)，要(yao)基于企業(ye)(ye)自(zi)身獨特(te)的(de)條件和優(you)勢，在(zai)(zai)(zai)充分認識并(bing)控制各類風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)基礎上，做出適合自(zi)己情況的(de)客(ke)戶(hu)定(ding)位，要(yao)利用科技賦能，提(ti)高養(yang)老保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)和長(chang)(chang)期(qi)護理(li)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)產品的(de)競爭力。保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)參與(yu)ESG投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)方(fang)面(mian)，專(zhuan)家認為，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)的(de)性質與(yu)ESG投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)理(li)念高度(du)匹配。中國(guo)ESG投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)雖(sui)然處在(zai)(zai)(zai)起步(bu)階段，國(guo)內企業(ye)(ye)相關(guan)信息(xi)(xi)披(pi)露不充分，ESG金(jin)融產品的(de)供給仍(reng)較為稀缺，但頂(ding)層設(she)計逐步(bu)完(wan)善，監管支持政策(ce)陸續出臺(tai)。專(zhuan)家建議(yi)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)應進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)完(wan)善公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)ESG治理(li)架構，監管部(bu)門(men)和行業(ye)(ye)自(zi)律組織可通過政策(ce)制定(ding)、行業(ye)(ye)交流等(deng)手(shou)段，強化對保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)機(ji)構開展ESG投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)宣傳引導(dao)，進(jin)一(yi)步(bu)鼓勵保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)企業(ye)(ye)加(jia)大ESG投(tou)(tou)(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)和信息(xi)(xi)披(pi)露力度(du)。