——中保基金風險評估專家委員會第十五次會議在(zai)京(jing)召開

發布時間：2017-12-12

   ; 11月(yue)(yue)28日至29日，中國(guo)保險(xian)保障基金有限責任(ren)公司(si)（簡稱“中保基金”）保險(xian)行(xing)業風(feng)險(xian)評估專(zhuan)(zhuan)家委員會(hui)第十五次(ci)(ci)會(hui)議在京召開(kai)。會(hui)議主(zhu)要就2017年(nian)前(qian)十月(yue)(yue)行(xing)業經(jing)營形勢以(yi)及當前(qian)風(feng)險(xian)熱(re)點(dian)、未來風(feng)險(xian)形勢等(deng)內容進行(xing)了研討，與(yu)會(hui)專(zhuan)(zhuan)家分別對新政策環境(jing)(jing)下人身險(xian)公司(si)轉型(xing)、二次(ci)(ci)費(fei)改后車(che)險(xian)經(jing)營以(yi)及復雜利率環境(jing)(jing)下的保險(xian)資金運用風(feng)險(xian)等(deng)熱(re)點(dian)問題(ti)進行(xing)了專(zhuan)(zhuan)題(ti)分析。

    在(zai)回歸保(bao)(bao)障的大(da)背景下，2017年(nian)1月(yue)-10月(yue)，財產(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)公司實現原保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)收入(ru)(ru)8589.65億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長14.37%，業(ye)務規(gui)模增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回升；財產(chan)(chan)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)承保(bao)(bao)利潤略有增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加，行(xing)業(ye)資(zi)(zi)(zi)本整(zheng)(zheng)體充足。人身(shen)險(xian)(xian)公司實現原保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)收入(ru)(ru)23799.04億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長22.05%，原保(bao)(bao)費(fei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)穩(wen)中趨(qu)緩；未計入(ru)(ru)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)合同(tong)核算的保(bao)(bao)戶投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)款和投(tou)連險(xian)(xian)獨立賬戶新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)交費(fei)5473.75億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少51.40%，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)型(xing)業(ye)務規(gui)模大(da)幅回落(luo)；人身(shen)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)務結構持續優化，行(xing)業(ye)凈利潤整(zheng)(zheng)體大(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。10月(yue)末(mo)，行(xing)業(ye)總資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)166198.43億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，較年(nian)初增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長9.94%；資(zi)(zi)(zi)金運(yun)(yun)用余額146950.52億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，較年(nian)初增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長9.74%，保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金運(yun)(yun)用規(gui)模穩(wen)步(bu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長，行(xing)業(ye)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)配置結構更趨(qu)合理(li)，資(zi)(zi)(zi)金運(yun)(yun)用收益(yi)率同(tong)比(bi)(bi)持平。

    從風險(xian)(xian)角度看，財產(chan)險(xian)(xian)方(fang)面，專家認為(wei)車險(xian)(xian)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)存(cun)在以(yi)下幾(ji)方(fang)面問(wen)(wen)題：一(yi)是市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)主(zhu)體相互競(jing)(jing)爭搶占市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)，帶來市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)費(fei)(fei)用(yong)水(shui)平整體攀升(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)局面。二是目前(qian)車險(xian)(xian)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)未真(zhen)正實(shi)現市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化。從歷史(shi)經營(ying)來看，車險(xian)(xian)定價(jia)基(ji)準偏高(gao)，這(zhe)是高(gao)費(fei)(fei)用(yong)率及違規(gui)競(jing)(jing)爭得(de)以(yi)持續(xu)(xu)的(de)(de)(de)根源。三(san)是閾(yu)值(zhi)監管有待進一(yi)步(bu)完善。市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)環境的(de)(de)(de)變化導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)閾(yu)值(zhi)監管各(ge)指標的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)際值(zhi)難以(yi)與前(qian)三(san)年自(zi)身平均值(zhi)保(bao)持一(yi)致(zhi)。一(yi)方(fang)面，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)可能通過(guo)(guo)(guo)數據處理來避免因閾(yu)值(zhi)監管暫停業務，反而產(chan)生其他新的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)(wen)題；另一(yi)方(fang)面，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)正常經營(ying)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中，如因賠付率過(guo)(guo)(guo)高(gao)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)綜(zong)合成本(ben)率超(chao)(chao)標而被停業，這(zhe)一(yi)監管處罰從法理上(shang)看存(cun)在問(wen)(wen)題。四是手續(xu)(xu)費(fei)(fei)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)加(jia)導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)公(gong)司(si)直接和間(jian)接稅(shui)負成本(ben)大幅增(zeng)加(jia)。今年1-10月49家產(chan)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)手續(xu)(xu)費(fei)(fei)占保(bao)費(fei)(fei)收入比例超(chao)(chao)過(guo)(guo)(guo)15%，超(chao)(chao)過(guo)(guo)(guo)稅(shui)前(qian)抵扣限(xian)額(e)的(de)(de)(de)手續(xu)(xu)費(fei)(fei)會導(dao)(dao)致(zhi)公(gong)司(si)企業所得(de)稅(shui)大幅攀升(sheng)；部分支付給中介的(de)(de)(de)手續(xu)(xu)費(fei)(fei)以(yi)某種形式(shi)返(fan)還給消費(fei)(fei)者，此過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)增(zeng)加(jia)了保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)間(jian)接稅(shui)負成本(ben)，降低了行業經營(ying)效率。

 
圖(tu)1 近兩(liang)年產險業(ye)手續費占保費比例(li)情(qing)況

    非(fei)(fei)車險(xian)(xian)(xian)業務(wu)承(cheng)保(bao)(bao)(bao)壓力(li)較大(da)，傳統(tong)非(fei)(fei)車險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)費充(chong)足(zu)率下降，保(bao)(bao)(bao)證保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)跨行(xing)(xing)業傳遞風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)、責任(ren)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的長尾風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)都值(zhi)得關注(zhu)。從公(gong)(gong)司(si)上看，中小公(gong)(gong)司(si)持(chi)續(xu)承(cheng)保(bao)(bao)(bao)虧損，專家認為未來中小公(gong)(gong)司(si)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)困境(jing)還將持(chi)續(xu)，主要原因(yin)有：一是行(xing)(xing)業資本整(zheng)體(ti)充(chong)裕；二是大(da)保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)司(si)準備金余額相對充(chong)足(zu)；上述兩點導致競(jing)爭程度(du)難以短時間緩解；三是中小公(gong)(gong)司(si)固定(ding)費用占比(bi)明(ming)顯偏高(gao)。部分過去經(jing)(jing)營(ying)非(fei)(fei)壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)投(tou)資型產品的公(gong)(gong)司(si)面(mian)臨流動性風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。此外，專家還提到目(mu)前(qian)行(xing)(xing)業數據不真(zhen)實情況較突(tu)出，數據失真(zhen)容易掩蓋(gai)行(xing)(xing)業風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)，誤導監管決策。

    人(ren)身(shen)險(xian)(xian)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，專(zhuan)家普(pu)遍認為(wei)，在(zai)行業(ye)(ye)回(hui)歸保(bao)障(zhang)的(de)(de)要求下(xia)，多(duo)數(shu)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)壓力較(jiao)大(da)。一是中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)公(gong)司(si)(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)較(jiao)艱難。大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)起步較(jiao)早，產品設計、渠(qu)道建設、品牌影響等(deng)各方(fang)面(mian)(mian)優勢明(ming)顯(xian)，轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)成效凸顯(xian)。而中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)公(gong)司(si)(si)產品、渠(qu)道較(jiao)為(wei)單一，多(duo)數(shu)發展(zhan)(zhan)方(fang)式較(jiao)為(wei)粗放，在(zai)回(hui)歸保(bao)障(zhang)的(de)(de)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)臨更多(duo)挑(tiao)戰。二是利率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)可能進(jin)一步凸顯(xian)。有(you)專(zhuan)家提出，隨著(zhu)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)不斷深入(ru)，人(ren)身(shen)險(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)務逐步向期(qi)(qi)交(jiao)化(hua)、長(chang)期(qi)(qi)化(hua)發展(zhan)(zhan)，負債久期(qi)(qi)顯(xian)著(zhu)拉長(chang)，未來面(mian)(mian)臨的(de)(de)利率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)加大(da)，而國內缺乏長(chang)期(qi)(qi)投資工具，難以有(you)效對沖利率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。當市場(chang)利率(lv)上升(sheng)時(shi)，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)為(wei)提高產品吸引力被動(dong)提高保(bao)險(xian)(xian)產品的(de)(de)預(yu)定利率(lv)，也會進(jin)一步加大(da)利差損(sun)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)隱患(huan)。三是，雖然人(ren)身(shen)險(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)流動(dong)性風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)整體可控，但部分中(zhong)(zhong)短存(cun)(cun)續期(qi)(qi)產品存(cun)(cun)量較(jiao)大(da)的(de)(de)公(gong)司(si)(si)流動(dong)性風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)隱患(huan)仍需關注。此外，專(zhuan)家提醒，中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)公(gong)司(si)(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)首(shou)先要獲得股東的(de)(de)支持，同(tong)時(shi)科(ke)學制定轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)計劃(hua)和階段性目(mu)標。中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)公(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)浪潮中(zhong)(zhong)求生存(cun)(cun)，應根據市場(chang)真實需求，尋找差異化(hua)、特色化(hua)發展(zhan)(zhan)道路，避免走入(ru)盲目(mu)效仿大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)公(gong)司(si)(si)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)經驗的(de)(de)誤區(qu)。

圖(tu)2 近三(san)年人身險業各月總業務收入

    資(zi)金(jin)運用(yong)(yong)方面(mian)，專家認(ren)為明年債券市場收益率仍(reng)將(jiang)維持(chi)高(gao)位，市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)、信用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)以(yi)及流(liu)動性(xing)(xing)問題(ti)(ti)值得(de)關注。一是杠桿(gan)較高(gao)、投(tou)資(zi)激進的(de)公司在去(qu)杠桿(gan)的(de)趨勢下面(mian)臨較高(gao)的(de)市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。債券市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)與資(zi)產(chan)(chan)負債錯配疊加，可能引發市場風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)、流(liu)動性(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)和(he)退保(bao)(bao)(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)相互(hu)擴(kuo)散和(he)傳染。二是債券的(de)剛(gang)性(xing)(xing)兌付被打破，信用(yong)(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)加大。過(guo)(guo)去(qu)在信用(yong)(yong)擴(kuo)張期(qi)，出(chu)現(xian)集(ji)中違約(yue)的(de)可能性(xing)(xing)較低(di)，未來信用(yong)(yong)擴(kuo)張速度(du)減慢后(hou)，需(xu)要警惕(ti)集(ji)中違約(yue)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)。三是股票(piao)資(zi)產(chan)(chan)變(bian)現(xian)的(de)難度(du)有(you)(you)可能增加。近(jin)兩年，大部分機構均配置了較多藍(lan)籌(chou)股，導致(zhi)大盤藍(lan)籌(chou)股流(liu)通盤較少，一旦機構集(ji)中賣出(chu)持(chi)有(you)(you)的(de)藍(lan)籌(chou)股，會(hui)(hui)出(chu)現(xian)無法拋售(shou)的(de)問題(ti)(ti)，增加了股票(piao)資(zi)產(chan)(chan)變(bian)現(xian)的(de)難度(du)。此外，有(you)(you)專家表(biao)示，資(zi)管新(xin)規短期(qi)來看(kan)，將(jiang)帶來保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)資(zi)管產(chan)(chan)品規模的(de)萎(wei)縮；長期(qi)來看(kan)，會(hui)(hui)造成保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)資(zi)管行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)分化(hua)。“在保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)姓(xing)(xing)保(bao)(bao)(bao)的(de)背景下，保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)投(tou)資(zi)也應該(gai)姓(xing)(xing)保(bao)(bao)(bao)，需(xu)要從負債端出(chu)發，解決負債端成本高(gao)企(qi)倒逼(bi)投(tou)資(zi)端提升(sheng)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)偏好的(de)問題(ti)(ti)，通過(guo)(guo)增量調存(cun)量的(de)方式實現(xian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)特殊時期(qi)的(de)平穩過(guo)(guo)渡。”與會(hui)(hui)專家說。

    來(lai)自保(bao)監會、財政部、人民銀(yin)行的相關部門同志，中保(bao)基金、保(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)、保(bao)險(xian)(xian)資產管理公(gong)司(si)、證券公(gong)司(si)和高校(xiao)研究機(ji)構的20多(duo)名專家學者出席(xi)了會議。中保(bao)基金保(bao)險(xian)(xian)行業(ye)風險(xian)(xian)評估專家委員會自2013年5月成立以來(lai)，已組織(zhi)召開了共15次38場專家會議。