發布日期：2019-12-19

    中(zhong)國保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基(ji)(ji)金(jin)有限責任(ren)公(gong)司(si)（以下簡(jian)稱“保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基(ji)(ji)金(jin)”）主(zhu)(zhu)辦的(de)保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行業風險(xian)(xian)評估專家委(wei)(wei)員(yuan)(yuan)會(hui)(hui)第十九次會(hui)(hui)議于(yu)12月5日和(he)(he)12月10日分(fen)別在(zai)北京和(he)(he)上海(hai)召開。來自保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)障(zhang)基(ji)(ji)金(jin)、保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)、保(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)資管公(gong)司(si)、高等(deng)院(yuan)校和(he)(he)其(qi)他市場機構的(de)20多名專家學者共同探討2019年前(qian)三季度人身(shen)險(xian)(xian)、財(cai)產(chan)險(xian)(xian)以及(ji)資金(jin)運(yun)用等(deng)方面的(de)形勢(shi)與風險(xian)(xian)。專家委(wei)(wei)員(yuan)(yuan)會(hui)(hui)主(zhu)(zhu)任(ren)委(wei)(wei)員(yuan)(yuan)魏迎寧(ning)，銀保(bao)(bao)(bao)監(jian)會(hui)(hui)、人民銀行、財(cai)政部(bu)及(ji)上海(hai)銀保(bao)(bao)(bao)監(jian)局的(de)領導分(fen)別應邀出席(xi)，公(gong)司(si)副總經(jing)(jing)理(li)(li)單(dan)一、紀委(wei)(wei)書記張(zhang)忠良、總經(jing)(jing)理(li)(li)助理(li)(li)周伏平參(can)加了會(hui)(hui)議。

    人(ren)身險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務方(fang)面，壽(shou)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)及年(nian)金險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)為主(zhu)力險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)種，健(jian)(jian)康(kang)(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務保持快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，行業(ye)逐步回歸(gui)價值本源。專(zhuan)家認為，健(jian)(jian)康(kang)(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)新規實施(shi)對(dui)推動健(jian)(jian)康(kang)(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)意義重(zhong)(zhong)大，同時(shi)(shi)也(ye)對(dui)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司在(zai)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控(kong)、精算定(ding)價、科技創(chuang)新等(deng)方(fang)面提出更(geng)高要求。當前健(jian)(jian)康(kang)(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)市場(chang)競爭激烈、逆選擇風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)突(tu)出，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)財產險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司短(duan)期(qi)健(jian)(jian)康(kang)(kang)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)務虧損嚴(yan)重(zhong)(zhong)，經營能(neng)力較(jiao)人(ren)身險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公司存在(zai)較(jiao)大差距，在(zai)適(shi)應新規時(shi)(shi)將面臨更(geng)大挑戰。專(zhuan)家表示，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)新、小公司理(li)賠過于依(yi)賴第三方(fang)管理(li)機構，其自身缺(que)乏結(jie)構化數據積累和分(fen)(fen)析，長(chang)(chang)遠發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)或將受到限(xian)制。此外，長(chang)(chang)壽(shou)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)具有隱(yin)蔽(bi)性(xing)強、可逆性(xing)低、影響規模(mo)大等(deng)特點，將帶來年(nian)金產品負債成本攀(pan)升等(deng)多方(fang)面影響，需在(zai)產品設計時(shi)(shi)充分(fen)(fen)預估并重(zhong)(zhong)點防范。

    財(cai)產(chan)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業務方面(mian)，車險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)業務規(gui)模增速放(fang)緩，綜(zong)合(he)成本(ben)率(lv)(lv)(lv)略有下降、賠付(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)和費(fei)(fei)用率(lv)(lv)(lv)一升(sheng)一降。專(zhuan)家指出(chu)，當前(qian)監管檢查趨嚴、處(chu)罰加(jia)重(zhong)，對(dui)車險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)費(fei)(fei)率(lv)(lv)(lv)和費(fei)(fei)用的(de)報(bao)行合(he)一改善較(jiao)為明顯，但仍存在費(fei)(fei)用延遲入賬等數(shu)據不真(zhen)實(shi)現象(xiang)，這對(dui)未來費(fei)(fei)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)厘(li)定(ding)(ding)將產(chan)生不利影響。受非洲豬瘟影響，今年(nian)(nian)養(yang)殖(zhi)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)綜(zong)合(he)賠付(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)突增，承(cheng)保虧損嚴重(zhong)。同時，受外(wai)部環境影響，今年(nian)(nian)保證保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)賠付(fu)率(lv)(lv)(lv)也繼續走高。專(zhuan)家認為，當前(qian)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管控相對(dui)薄弱，定(ding)(ding)價不足，潛在風險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)較(jiao)大(da)。此(ci)外(wai)，財(cai)產(chan)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)現金流承(cheng)壓(ya)，并(bing)將壓(ya)力傳(chuan)導至(zhi)再(zai)保公(gong)司(si)。

    資(zi)金(jin)(jin)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)方(fang)面，行(xing)業資(zi)金(jin)(jin)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)余額穩(wen)步增長(chang)，資(zi)產配(pei)(pei)置結構(gou)較為平穩(wen)，資(zi)金(jin)(jin)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)收益率同比上升。專家指出，資(zi)產負(fu)債錯配(pei)(pei)是行(xing)業長(chang)期存在(zai)的問題，長(chang)期利率下行(xing)，將帶來(lai)利差損風險(xian)(xian)(xian)，疊加(jia)優質資(zi)產稀缺(que)，資(zi)產負(fu)債匹配(pei)(pei)管理(li)難(nan)度加(jia)大。未來(lai)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)資(zi)金(jin)(jin)配(pei)(pei)置將面臨拉長(chang)久期，提高(gao)銀行(xing)永續(xu)(xu)債、二級資(zi)本債和非標產品的配(pei)(pei)置比例(li)；或將提高(gao)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)偏好，增加(jia)權(quan)益類投資(zi)的比例(li)。專家認為，保(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)公(gong)司權(quan)益投資(zi)將向多元(yuan)化方(fang)向發(fa)展，需(xu)關(guan)注(zhu)會(hui)計準則變更對權(quan)益類投資(zi)帶來(lai)的影響。此外，經(jing)濟(ji)下行(xing)周期需(xu)持續(xu)(xu)關(guan)注(zhu)信用(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)，特別是非標市場的信用(yong)(yong)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)，需(xu)加(jia)強(qiang)風險(xian)(xian)(xian)管控。